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Full-time office attendance for federal employees
Require 20% renewable electricity
Increase U.S. fossil-fuel production
Tax incentives for affordable housing
Health-insurance tax credits for low- and middle-income families
Full results & study details
Original evaluation. Average absolute gap across its ten questions: 4.9 percentage points. Chart labels are rounded to whole percentages; bar lengths and the table preserve the underlying values.
| Proposal | Answers | Human | Simulated | Gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ban assault rifles | 925 | 61.54% | 57.84% | 3.70 |
| Legal status for qualifying undocumented immigrants | 925 | 61.09% | 61.12% | 0.04 |
| Require 20% renewable electricity | 925 | 70.48% | 69.59% | 0.89 |
| Relax zoning for apartments / condos | 925 | 48.38% | 59.86% | 11.48 |
| Medicaid work requirement | 925 | 59.84% | 56.58% | 3.26 |
| Tax-and-spending bill | 912 | 51.97% | 44.85% | 7.13 |
| Military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities | 916 | 46.66% | 44.31% | 2.35 |
| Citizenship documents for voter registration | 978 | 75.95% | 62.96% | 12.99 |
| Broad tariffs | 973 | 38.58% | 42.31% | 3.73 |
| Escalating China tariffs | 976 | 49.64% | 45.82% | 3.83 |
A percentage-point gap is the absolute difference between the two support shares. These are observed errors, not confidence intervals or a margin of error; decimal places do not imply statistical certainty.
Source: 2025 Cooperative Election Study, matched research subset. There are 997 distinct people and 9,380 paired person–question answers. Survey weights are normalized within each question; the overall error gives each question equal weight. These matched-sample shares do not establish population representativeness.
Each question was held out while fitting the combination; the same people recur across questions. The method was selected after exploratory comparisons, and the renewable-electricity chart is selected from this evaluation. The largest gap is 12.99 percentage points. Public historical data, related topics and method selection limit generalization. Results do not establish accuracy for individual choices, counties, ads or products.
Additional-question evaluation
Four displayed charts show selected examples from 28 further binary questions. These examples favor less confrontational topics and varied support levels, including near-even splits; they are illustrative selections, not a claim of higher accuracy on difficult questions. The method was frozen using the original ten questions before evaluation on these additional questions. Respondents recur across evaluations. Average absolute gap across the 28 questions: 5.00 percentage points; largest gap: 12.20 points. These are sample support comparisons, not individual prediction accuracy.
Results use 23,860 matched person–question answers. Missing responses and simulation refusals change the available sample by question. Human and simulated shares use the same respondents and survey weights within each question. The separate four-option question is excluded from these binary results.
| Proposal | Answers | Human | Simulated | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Make it easier for people to obtain concealed-carry permit | 983 | 37.79% | 49.99% | 12.20 pp |
| Require criminal background checks on all gun sales | 983 | 92.59% | 90.25% | 2.35 pp |
| Increase the number of police on the street by 10 percent, even if it means fewer funds for other public services | 983 | 53.93% | 65.28% | 11.35 pp |
| Decrease the number of police on the street by 10 percent, and increase funding for other public services | 983 | 32.05% | 42.35% | 10.31 pp |
| Increase the number of border patrols on the US-Mexican border | 983 | 64.12% | 70.83% | 6.71 pp |
| Build a wall between the U.S. and Mexico | 983 | 49.41% | 46.85% | 2.57 pp |
| Provide permanent resident status to children of immigrants who were brought to the United States by their parents (also known as Dreamers). Provide these immigrants a pathway to citizenship if they meet the citizenship requirements and have committed no crimes | 983 | 72.26% | 76.10% | 3.84 pp |
| Give the Environmental Protection Agency power to regulate carbon dioxide emissions | 641 | 73.54% | 70.33% | 3.21 pp |
| Strengthen the Environmental Protection Agency enforcement of the Clean Air Act and Clean Water Act even if it costs U.S. jobs | 640 | 70.60% | 67.49% | 3.11 pp |
| Increase fossil fuel production in the U.S. | 641 | 45.71% | 44.17% | 1.55 pp |
| Halt new oil and gas leases on federal lands | 641 | 60.27% | 62.76% | 2.49 pp |
| Expand federal tax incentives to encourage developers to build homes for people who make less than half of the average income in your area | 641 | 76.83% | 73.01% | 3.82 pp |
| Repeal the Affordable Care Act | 641 | 31.29% | 35.17% | 3.87 pp |
| Extending the Obamacare tax credits to help low and middle- income families afford health care? | 641 | 75.34% | 74.16% | 1.18 pp |
| Confirm Pete Hegseth as the Secretary of Defense. | 846 | 46.76% | 46.74% | 0.02 pp |
| Confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the Secretary of Health and Human services. | 852 | 49.45% | 43.51% | 5.94 pp |
| Require detention of undocumented immigrants charged with theft-related crimes and allow states to sue the federal government for immigration failures. | 844 | 57.24% | 61.43% | 4.18 pp |
| Require medical care for infants born alive after attempted abortions, with criminal penalties for doctors who fail to provide care. | 846 | 75.05% | 68.89% | 6.16 pp |
| Cut $9.4 billion from previously allocated federal spending, including $8.3 billion from foreign aid programs (including PEPFAR HIV/AIDS treatment programs in Africa, World Food Programme emergency food aid, and UNHCR refugee assistance) and $1.1 billion from NPR and PBS public broadcasting. | 849 | 51.53% | 53.97% | 2.44 pp |
| End birthright citizenship, or automatic citizenship for infants born in the United States to parents who are in the country illegally or on temporary visas. | 851 | 46.49% | 42.62% | 3.86 pp |
| Ban individuals from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen from entering the United States, while partially restricting entry from 7 additional countries. | 855 | 54.19% | 46.22% | 7.97 pp |
| Withdraw the United States from the World Health Organization. | 931 | 32.80% | 43.57% | 10.77 pp |
| Grant full pardons to approximately 1,500 people convicted of crimes related to the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, including those who assaulted police officers. | 935 | 32.36% | 38.35% | 5.99 pp |
| End work-from-home arrangements for federal employees and require all government workers to return to their physical offices full-time. | 935 | 48.74% | 45.81% | 2.93 pp |
| Rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America. | 933 | 32.05% | 38.68% | 6.63 pp |
| Make it illegal for health care professionals to provide someone younger than 18 with medical care for a gender transition | 939 | 59.77% | 52.68% | 7.09 pp |
| Prohibit classroom discussion or instruction on sexual orientation and identity in kindergarten to third grade or in older grades in "a manner that is not age-appropriate or developmentally appropriate" | 939 | 66.60% | 59.67% | 6.93 pp |
| Prohibit local municipalities and other public bodies from interfering with a person’s ability to obtain a gender transition operation | 938 | 53.75% | 54.23% | 0.48 pp |
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Geographic coverage
Many sides.
Across the map.
50 states + DC.
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254counties & equivalents
Create an account ↗Location coverage, not county-level accuracy. Analysis is in development.
Map sources
Directory: US Census Bureau 2024 Gazetteer. Generalized state boundaries: US Atlas, based on 2017 Census geography. Alaska and Hawaii shown as insets.